If you had a conversation with someone in 1938 and told them that in the next seven years
- a systematic, state-sponsored, program of murder would kill more than six million Jewish people in Europe,
- more than fifty nations would fight in a World War that would kill 60 million people,
- the United States would research, develop, and build an Atomic Bomb, then use two of them to kill civilians, and
- 50 nations would sign an international treaty of peace and security, forming the United Nations to uphold international law, and promote universal respect for human rights,
most of them would not believe you.
If you had a conversation with someone in 1858 and told them that in the next seven years
- eleven states would claim they’ve seceded from the United States, forming their own country called the Confederate States of America,
- more than two million men would fight in the United States army to invade and conquer the seceded states, almost 200,000 of them black,
- more than 700,000 would die, and
- the United States would abolish slavery,
most of them would not believe you.
If you had a conversation with someone in 1985 and told them that in the next seven years
- A 54 year-old Mikhail Gorbachev would be appointed General Secretary of the Communist Party, leader of the Soviet Union,
- The Berlin Wall would be torn down by civilians and East and West Germany would be reunited, and
- The Soviet Union would cease to exist,
most of them would not believe you
People who study the past are pretty good at writing these bullet points lists after they occur, but we’re not good at predicting them beforehand. Yet the growing tensions of geopolitical, social, economic, and climatic challenges are convincing enough to conclude that we’re facing momentous change again. It feels like something significant is coming, we just don’t know what.
If we have a conversation with someone now, we might be able to convince them of the magnitude of what we’re facing by using the examples, but if we’ve learned anything, we know that most of them will not believe us.